The markets have risen under 2 % on a week-on-week basis on lower volumes growth as the players seem to have abstained from buying at higher levels. The Outstanding net long positions are up approximately 20 % on a week-on-week basis. This is a positive development as the OI has increased in the futures segment which shows a higher risk appetite amongst the traders. The outlook appears to be cautiously optimistic as the markets are above a short term resistance at the 1802 levels which if violated on a continous close basis, will see 1788 levels. The Nifty futures trade at Re 3 discount to cash. The stocks of the week are likely to be Reliance, TCS & Tisco.

Outstanding positions - week on week

Market internals - outstandings - all Rs crores

Description	Rupees crores	Call options	Put options	Net position
Index Futures	2,026 214
Stock futures	6,731 1143
Index options		568 185	640 323	(-) 72  138
Stock options		1282 633	389 212	893  421
Total Futures	8,757 1357	Total options - net	821 283
Gross longs ( F+ O )	10,607 2175	Net longs ( F+ O )	9,578 1640

Observation - The net out-standings have increased as the above table indicates. This is a positive development. Click here to view previous weeks file

Note - Previous weekend gross long positions Rs 8,432 crs, net long positions Rs 7,938 crs.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

It maybe noted that FII's now hold approximately Rs 5,491 crs in open interest which is a substantial portion of the entire market open interest. The FII's seem to be concentrating on stock futures and then Index futures in that order of preference. Please note that FII's have sold more futures than they have bought on Oct 07, 2004. That indicates selling in the near term. Purchases of Rs 260 crs are seen in the cash segment on that day.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

The traded volumes have slumped - a negative sign as the markets have risen on poor volumes. The traded turnover was lower in all the segments. We want the volumes to rise in the coming week if the markets are to see retail participation. The combination of traded volumes, open interest and put / call ratios are a reliable indicator of the undercurrents. The outlook appears cautiously optimistic in the short term. Click here to view previous weeks file

Description	Previous week - Rs. crores	Current - Rs. crores	Change - Rs crores
Index Futures	15,608	11,844	3,764
Stock futures	32,250	29,595	2,655
Totals - a	47,858	41,439	6,419
Index calls	1,610	1,139	471
Stock calls	2,971	3,045	74
Totals - b	4,581	4,184	397
Index puts	997	827	170
Stock puts	949	641	308
Totals - c	1,946	1,468	478
Grand totals ( a+b+c)	54,385	47,091	6,044

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Nuts and bolts - week on week

Put call ratios

 

PCR - Index	1.14 : 1	Previous week	0.84: 1
PCR - Stocks	0.29 : 1	Previous week	0.25 : 1
PCR - Total	0.35 : 1	Previous week	0.30 : 1

Observation - The PCR shows a tilt towards the bears as the ratios are showing bearish activity building up on a week-on-week basis. The Nifty PCR remaining outright bearish, the shorts have risen faster than the longs. This ( PCR ) will be the one of the most reliable indicator of market trends. The total PCR has remained positive. The equilibrium point is 0.50 : 1. Click here to view previous weeks file

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Directional guidance - week on week

Market internals - Nifty put / call trends - 5 highest open interest contracts

Calls	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
1800 CE	00	147	147
1830 CE	00	74	74
1700 CE	86	64	22
1770 CE	75	59	16
1750 CE	83	70	13
Puts	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs crores	Change Rs Crs
1770 PE	32	86	54
1750 PE	50	104	22
1650 PE	49	48	01
1700 PE	102	104	02
1800 PE	00	169	169

Observation - The index contracts show which way the players are tilting. The outstanding positions seem to have increased all round in the previous week. The bulls have added Rs 170 Crs. Our inference is - watch the 1808 support levels in the coming days. The bears have added Rs 246 Crs. That shows a tendency towards building up shorts at the 1770 - 1830 strike price. The undertone appears optimistic for now. Click here to view previous weeks file.

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

The center stage - week on week

5 Highest outstanding scrips

Futures	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
Tisco	652	789	137
TCS	534	566	32
Reliance	372	384	12
Maruti	320	305	15
SBI	281	358	77

Options	Previous week Rs Crs	Current Rs. Crores	Change Rs Crs
Infosys 1710 calls	20	30	10
TCS 1100 calls	19	53	34
Satyam 400 Calls	06	31	25
Tisco 290 calls	34	32	02
Tisco 300 calls	37	70	33

Observation - The action remains polarised around the same big counters - Tisco, Reliance, SBI & Telco. Outstanding open interest in most of the stocks has risen - a positive phenomena. Watch Tisco for directional guidance in the coming week.  Click here to view previous weeks file.

 

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

The activity is polarised around the Nifty between the 1800 - 1840 on the long side and Satyam Computers, TCS, Reliance & Tisco in individual stocks.

 

Source - The National Stock Exchange.

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

This segment is for paid subscribers only

Open interest I FII positions I Volumes I PCR I Nifty puts / calls I open int changes I OI - stocks I Top calls / puts I Volatility I Recos I Print this page I Close Window

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L. Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  (022) 23438482 / 23400345.

---

Legal  notice :-  The Professional  Ticker  Reader  & the Derivatives Denizen are trademarks  of  Bhambwani  Securities (P) Ltd.  and  any unauthorised  replication / duplication  in part or full  will  be infringing  our  trademark and  will  result in  legal  action  being  enforced  on  the  infringing  persons / parties.

---

While all due care has been taken while in compiling the data enclosed herein, we cannot be held responsible for errors, if any, creeping in. Please  consult  an  independent  qualified  investment  advisor  before  taking  investment  decisions. This mail is not sent unsolicited, and only advisory in nature. We have accepted no consideration from any company mentioned above and recommend taking decisions on merits of the stocks from our viewpoint. This email is being sent to you as a paid subscriber. Please protect your interests and ours by not disclosing the contents to any un-authorised  person/s.