The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Oct 02, 2004

Markets surge on strength. Sensex gains 148 points.

Lower volumes, positive breadth as bears cover shorts.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5530	5685	5428	5675	147.79
BSE - 200	724	744	716	743	18.68
NSE - 50	1722	1778	1695	1775	52.65
Dow Jones	10193 146	Nasdaq	1942  63	FTSE	4660 81
Advances	8378	Declines	6447	Put / Call trades - 56242 : 140032
FII Investments	Rs  416 Crs Sept 1 - 30		Domestic Funds	Rs  199 Crs Sept 1 - 30

The value of shares advancing was Rs. 18,986 crores ( previous week Rs. 17,086 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 11,334 crores ( previous week Rs. 15,286 crores ). This indicates a broader buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 9,641 Crores ( previous week Rs. 9,902 Crores ). The total traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 20,826 Crores ( previous week Rs. 22,723 Crores ).

The week saw a bullish movement as the derivatives series of September drew to a close. As forecast by us repeatedly in the past, institutional players supported the markets till the last day, to boost NAV's. The bears also covered shorts as their stop losses were triggered. The impeding earnings season also saw players build positions on their favoured counters. The traded volumes were lower due to the downward correction and an absence of panic sales in the retail segment. The market breadth was positive and the undertone was optimistic. The Sensex was boosted by ACC, Bajaj Auto, BHEL, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Amb Cements, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, HPCL, Hindalco, Infosys, MTNL, ONGC, Reliance Energy, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI, Telco, Tata Power, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex was dragged down by Bharati Tele, ICICI Bank, ITC and Ranbaxy. The Rupee ended the week at 45.85 levels ( 00.06 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous week's files.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

• The markets are likely to be dominated by the international crude oil prices which have closed above $ 50 / barrel and the earnings season, which will be the two biggest triggers for the coming week.

• The market breadth suggests a positive undertone in the sentiments as the numerical and capitalisation of the same has been bullish.

• The F&O indicators show a fall in open interest, which is a routine phenomena after expiry. The bears have covered a major portion of their short sales and are likely to push markets higher.

• The FII investments have been positive and the inflows have been to the extent of Rs 692 Crs between Monday through Friday. That is a positive indicator.

• Of the entire traded volumes for the week, only 18 % ( on Sept 28, 2004 - Tuesday ) was transacted on a negative market breadth day. That shows the bulls having the initiative in the markets.

•  The inflation figures have been a relief to the market players as the economic recovery theory rests on higher GDP growth rate coupled with lower inflation numbers

• The overseas markets have been firm and a corrective rally is being seen there as the players gear up for the earnings season there.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

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Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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