The markets opened with the BSE 30 sensex at 2955 levels, saw a high of 3059 levels and low of 2934 levels, before closing at 3056 levels, thereby gaining 107 points. The BSE & NSE combined weekly advance decline ratio was at 7470 : 3639. The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 11400 crores and the value of shares declining was Rs. 5209 crores. This indicates a broader buying bias. The total traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 4838 Crores. The total traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 11800 Crores. The week that was :- The markets began trading on a somber note and proceeded to end the week with a 3 % gain. The firm US market aided market sentiments and the latter half of the week saw a rally in index heavy-weights and technology stocks which spiraled the benchmark indices to a 6 week high. The market breadth was positive in absolute and capitalisation terms and traded volumes improved slightly. These are signs of optimism in an oversold market. The entire week saw uptick days on the absolute breadth which makes the entire traded volumes transacted on bullish days. As advocated by us last week, the markets have indeed turned optimistic and the corrective rally is underway. The Sensex was boosted by ACC, BHEL, BSES, Castrol, Cipla, Colgate, Glaxo, Grasim, Gujarat Ambuja Cements, HDFC, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, Hind Petrol, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, ITC Ltd, L&T, Reliance, Satyam Computers, SBI, Tisco and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex was dragged down by Bajaj Auto, MTNL and Nestle. The rupee ended the week at 47.12 levels against the US $. Likely triggers :- The firm overseas markets are a feel good factor that markets required as a positive trigger. The markets have recovered from an oversold level which makes this rebound a more meaningful one. The FII figures continue to be positive and market breadth is positive with rising volumes. The put / call ratio shows an increase in the outstanding positions which is tilted in the favour of long positions. The ratio stands at 0.45 : 1. The threat of SARS is now factored in and the feeling is that China's export loss is likely to be India's gain. This week has seen a rollback of petrol & diesel prices which will curb inflation. Positive results by Dell & guidance issued by Cisco is optimistic and should the tech spending by US corporates be hiked, the technology sector maybe a beneficiary. The dialogue initiated by Indo-Pak diplomats is a minor positive also. Overall, expect an improved outlook. Technicals :- Please stay online to enable loading of graphics from our servers. The daily bar chart of the Nifty shows a rising tops and bottom formation and the previous top of 957 has been surpassed. That is a sign of bullishness in the short term. The slower oscillators are in a buy mode and that indicates a continued buying momentum in the coming week - after possible corrections. The short term momentum oscillators are nearing the overbought levels which may see selling pressure at the 985 - 990 levels. Above the 990 resistance, the Nifty can rally upto the 1003 levels.
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The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and (022) 23438482 / 23400345. SEBI disclosure :- The author has no positions in the stocks mentioned above.
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