Weekly market view
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April 03, 2004 |
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The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 23,478 crores ( previous week Rs 18,770 crs ) and the commensurate value of shares declining was Rs. 10,181 crores ( previous week Rs 11,015 crs ). This indicates a broader buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 10,616 Crores ( previous week Rs 9,821). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 23,154 Crores ( previous week Rs 20,016 crs ).
The markets saw a
bullishness pervade the sentiments as the bulls propelled the markets
almost 5 % higher. The fact that the weekly close was near the intra-week
highs is a sign of strength. The traded volumes were higher and the market
breadth was a major improvement over the previous week. The only weak
sector was the software segment which was hounded by weak US $ worries.
The old economy stocks led by the oil & gas sectors lent a bullishness
in the undertone which was a major boost to the sentiments. The Sensex was boosted by ACC,
Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, BHEL, BSES, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Amb Cem,
HDFC Bank, HDFC, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, HPCL, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, ITC,
L&T, MTNL, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance, SBI, Telco, Tata Power, Tisco
and Zee Telefilms. The Sensex was
dragged down by Infosys, Satyam Computers and Wipro. The rupee ended the
week at 43.73
levels (
Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I The markets have seen a quantum jump in the sentiments as the entire traded volumes of the week has been transacted on bullish market breadth. The volumes traded have been higher ( refer table above ) and the software sector apart, the entire index composition has been bullish. There is a clear sense of optimism in the cash markets which is heartening. However, the F&O markets show a cautious picture, wherein the traded volumes have fallen 8 %. While a part of this phenomena can be attributed to the beginning of the new derivatives series, the undertone is definitely cautious. The lower traded volumes continue to be a worry and traders should keep an ear to the ground to monitor the signals emanating from this indicator. The FII investments have continued to flow in, and the markets derived much optimism from this occurrence. The domestic mutual funds have been selling to meet year end redemption demand from dividend strippers and routine withdrawals. The most immediate triggers are the earnings season, polls and overseas markets. The announcement of the GDP figures have resulted in a feel good factor, and the rising crude oil prices in the global markets may see a partial impact due to the falling US $. The turbulence seen in the Taiwanese markets in the recent past is likely to see enhanced FII inflows in India from emerging market funds. The overseas markets have seen exceptional strength as fears of terror attacks, recession and oil shocks have receeded into the background. The US economic data has been positive so far and the services sector figures are expected soon. being an election year there, we expect the figures to be rosy. Overall, we expect a positive undertone in the markets. Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I The weekly bar chart of the Nifty shows a strong surge in the index which has taken the index to the channel top. Our investors will recollect that we had categorically stated last week that only above a closing of 1865 levels, will the outlook turn bullish and a flag formation will be confirmed. The index has closed above the 13 week SMA and has bounced higher from the 30 week SMA - both are signs of bullishness in a typical bull market. The index is seen making lower bottoms and tops and once the recent top of 1898 is surpassed, the bull market is likely to take conclusive shape. In the immediate 2 sessions, watch the 1865 levels, above which the Nifty is likely to be bullish in the near term. If the index remains above 1865, the 1898 levels are the next logical target. The oscillators are showing a bear covering at lower levels, which is likely to accelerate if the Nifty remains above 1865. This level is the crucial threshold level to watch during the coming week.
Our outlook on the Nifty is that of cautious optimism and trades should be on the long side above 1865 in small lots. Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I
For stock specific recommendations, please refer to our special edition - "Flavours of the week". Click here to view previous editions of the "Flavours of the week." Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I Your feedback is important ! Please click here to let us know your views. Click here to inform a friend about this page on our website.
The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345. SEBI disclosure - The author has no positions in the stocks mentioned above.
Legal notice :- The Professional Ticker Reader is a trademark of Bhambwani Securities (P) Ltd. and any un-authorised replication / duplication in part or full will be infringing our trademark and will result in legal action being enforced on the infringing persons / parties. |
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Your feedback is important ! Please click here to let us know your views. Click here to inform a friend about this page on our website.