The Professional Ticker Reader TM

Your accurate, authentic and affordable guide to investing

June 12, 2004

Markets flatter to deceive. Sensex sheds 56 points.

Poor volumes, positive breadth indices hit fortnight lows.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	4927	5000	4823	4832	56.29
BSE - 200	634	647	627	628	01.45
NSE - 50	1521	1561	1504	1508	12.65
Dow  Jones	10410 167	Nasdaq	2000 21	FTSE	4484 30
Advances	6312	Declines	5917	Put / Call trades - 38548 : 69939
FII Investments	Rs  535 Crs Jun 1 - 10		Domestic Funds	Rs  128 Crs Jun 1 - 10

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of  shares advancing was Rs. 12,251 crores ( previous week Rs. 15,969 crores) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 13,734 crores ( previous week Rs. 13,442 crores). This indicates a marginal buying bias. The total traded weekly volume on the BSE was Rs. 7,874 Crores (previous week Rs. 9,089 Crores). The total traded weekly volume on the NSE  was Rs. 18,204 Crores ( previous week Rs. 20,450 Crores ).

The week was marked by lower volumes ( which remains a constant source of concern ) and marginal falls, thanks to the penultimate session of the week. The retail segment's participation was sorely lacking and the undertone was definitely brittle. The market breadth was surprisingly positive and the capitalisation of the gainers versus losers shows a selling bias on the index heavy-weights and buying momentum in the non-index counters. FII inflows for this trading week were positive and that was a factor in stemming the erosion in the sentiments. The Sensex  was boosted by ACC, Bajaj Auto, Bharati Tele, BSES, Dr Reddy, HDFC Bank, HDFC, HPCL, ITC Ltd, MTNL and Telco. The Sensex  was dragged down by BHEL, Cipla, Grasim, Guj Amb Cem, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Infosys, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI, Tata Power, Tisco, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The rupee ended the week at 45.16 levels ( 00.04 ) against  the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view previous weeks editions

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

The markets are waiting for a few major developments - budget, oil price hike, US interest rate announcements and the international crude oil prices. The week's trading pattern is suggestive of a wait & watch approach by a majority of the market participants and the undertone remains shallow. The outstanding long positions in the F&O segment show a lack of depth in the market sentiments and falling volumes which is a negative development. The FII's have sold equities on June 10 to the tune of Rs 61 crores, which is unlikely to be greeted well by the market players. The bulls have the combined weight of falling prices which result in mark-to-market payments, high carry-over margins and higher impact costs to combat, whereas the bears are riding the falls with relative ease and comfort. The bias is therefore towards the bears, who enjoy the upper hand and total initiative. Since the international markets are also rangebound, thanks to the crude oil scenario, the automobile, commodity and related stocks are under pressure. We feel the TCS ipo is likely to be repeat scenario of the ONGC case, the offer being attractive to investors, there is a likelihood of diverting of investor focus from the secondary to primary markets. There is also the factor of reshuffling of weightages in the technology sector itself as institutional investors cut exposure in other IT stocks to participate in the TCS offer. Other than the few Tata group stocks that will be unlocking hidden value, the overall effect on the markets will be that of downward pressure.

The overseas markets have been firm and have risen approximately 1 %, on the back of softening crude prices. That is likely to cushion the fall in the domestic markets to a limited extent. Click here to view previous weeks editions

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

This segment is for paid subscribers only.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai  based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

---

Legal  notice :-  The Professional  Ticker  Reader  is a  trademark  of  Bhambwani  Securities (P) Ltd.  and  any un-authorised  replication / duplication  in part or full  will  be infringing  our  trademark and  will  result in  legal  action  being  enforced  on  the  infringing  persons / parties.

---

While all due care has been taken while in compiling the data enclosed herein, we cannot be held responsible for errors, if any, creeping in. Please  consult  an  independent  qualified  investment  advisor  before  taking  investment  decisions. This mail is not sent unsolicited, and only advisory in nature. We have accepted no consideration from any company mentioned above and recommend taking decisions on merits of the stocks from our viewpoint. This email is being sent to you as a paid subscriber. Please protect your interests and ours by not disclosing the contents to any un-authorised  person/s.