The Professional Ticker Reader TM

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Sept 25, 2004

Markets pause for a breather. Sensex cools off 33 points.

Higher volumes, positive breadth even as bulls slip on oil concerns.

Weekly statistics

Indices	Open	High	Low	Close	Change
BSE - 30	5566	5638	5513	5527	33.40
BSE - 200	725	736	721	724	00.02
NSE - 50	1734	1760	1717	1722	11.15
Dow Jones	10047 237	Nasdaq	1879 31	FTSE	4578  13
Advances	7377	Declines	7009	Put / Call trades - 48461 : 127993
FII Investments	Rs  1669 Crs Sept 1 - 23		Domestic Funds	Rs  50 Crs Sept 1 - 23

The BSE & NSE combined weekly value of shares advancing was Rs. 17,086 crores ( previous week Rs. 19,630 crores ) and the value of shares declining was Rs. 15,286 crores ( previous week Rs. 10,357 crores). This indicates a marginal buying bias. The total weekly traded volume on the BSE was Rs. 9,902 Crores ( previous week Rs. 9224 Crores ). The total weekly traded volume on the NSE was Rs. 22,723 Crores ( previous week Rs. 20,856 Crore ).

The markets saw a consolidation as the bulls preferred to offload positions at higher levels square off marginal long positions ahead of the derivatives expiry even as bears pressed sales. The traded volumes this week were higher than the previous week and the market breadth was marginally positive. The capitalisation of the market breadth shows a qualitative fall in the figures as the bulls displayed a lack of buying conviction at higher levels. The Sensex was boosted by Bajaj Auto, Cipla, HDFC Bank, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, L&T, Ranbaxy, Tata Motors, Tata Power and Tisco. The Sensex was dragged down by ACC, BHEL, Dr Reddy, Grasim, Guj Amb Cements, HDFC, Hero Honda, Hind Lever, HPCL, Infosys, ITC, MTNL, ONGC, Reliance Inds, Satyam Computers, SBI, Wipro and Zee Telefilms. The rupee ended the week at 45.91 levels ( 00.09 ) against the US $. Overall, the week was in line with our expectations. Click here to view the previous week's files.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

• The markets are likely to be cautious on account of rising crude oil prices which can upset the global economic recovery process.

• The FII inflows have been positive this week ( Rs 396 crs in four days of the week ) but the figures for the 23 rd are negative by Rs 146 Crs which is likely to be a sign of caution for the bulls.

• The F&O indicators are pointing towards a rise in outstanding open interest on a week-on-week basis and a marginal short covering by the bears, which is a positive indicator.

• The traded volumes show only 40 % of the entire volumes being transacted on negative market breadth days. The undertone has been largely positive.

• The end of the month will see the NAV computation by the mutual funds - both domestic and international, therefore, a large scale selling pressure seems unlikely.

• The impeding expiry of the September series will see higher volatility as the players square up positions ahead of expiry.

• The PM's visit to USA is likely to result in higher FDI from there in the infrastructure sector and impart a feel good factor over the longer term.

• The overseas markets have been weak on account of hike in interest rates, firm crude prices and earnings season anxieties.

Overall, the outlook for the markets are likely to see caution at higher levels with a possible consolidation before the next leg of the upmove can commence.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

This segment is for paid subscribers only.

Top I Derivatives guide I Likely triggers I Technicals I Reco's I

Have a profitable day.

 

Vijay L Bhambwani

Ceo :- Bsplindia.com

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com and  ( 022 ) 23438482 / 23400345.

SEBI disclosure -  The author has no positions in  the stocks mentioned above.

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