The markets witnessed a lower turnover week as the traders geared up for the Jan series expiry. The week-on-week market wide turnover on the MCX fell by 11 %. The market wide open interest fell by 8 %. The MCX turnover gainers during the week were Cardamon, Natural Gas, Nickel, Silver, Sugar M Kol and Zinc. The open interest gainers were Aluminium, Cardamon, Copper, Crude Oil, Lead, Mentha Oil, Nickel, Silver, Sugar M Kol and Zinc. The US non strategic petroleum reserves were higher by 3.6 mn barrels, at the 334.8 mn barrel mark, exerting downward pressure on oil prices. The oil markets appear to have calmed down after recent fears over the Iran imbroglio and the easing USD is buoying commodity prices, including bullion. Silver may just turn out to be the wild card commodity in the coming weeks.
Weekly pivots - MCX
| Commodity |
Close |
Open Int |
Resistance |
Support |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Aluminium - Feb |
111.70 |
950 |
114 |
109 |
| Copper - Feb |
425.65 |
33996 |
440 |
406 |
| Gold - Apr |
28384.00 |
7278 |
29008 |
27003 |
| Lead - Feb |
112.60 |
1561 |
119 |
105 |
| Nickel - Feb |
1073.30 |
6709 |
1115 |
984 |
| Silver - Mar |
57229.00 |
13859 |
59167 |
52954 |
| Zinc - Feb |
106.30 |
2539 |
115 |
96 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Crude - Feb |
4942.00 |
23766.00 |
5103 |
4853 |
| Nat Gas - Feb |
137.00 |
23272.00 |
155 |
96 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Cardamon - Feb |
671.30 |
4880.00 |
701 |
603 |
| CPO - Feb |
517.70 |
4648.00 |
538 |
509 |
| Mentha Oil - Feb |
1593.00 |
3538.00 |
1643 |
1523 |
| Potato - Mar |
734.60 |
1574.00 |
761 |
704 |
| SugarMKol - Feb |
2847.00 |
224.00 |
2870 |
2801 |
Agri Commodities
Mentha Oil has seen a continuation of the upthrust as the price has attempted to test higher ground. The 1600 - 1625 band is likely to be a near term resistance and needs watching as a potential pressure point. Existing longs maybe held for now but fresh buying is ruled out. Market internals indicate a 41 % decrease in turnover and a 5 % increase in open interest.
Potato has seen consolidation as the weekly chart shows an inside pattern which shows a decline in trader interest. Avoid the counter for now. Market internals indicate a 49 % decrease in turnover and a 3 % decrease in open interest.
Sugar M Kol has rallied along expected lines as advocated last week as the global glut in supply was expected to ease. With a slight decline in the USD price, the commodity space saw defensive buying, which is substantiated by the higher open interest in this commodity. Market internals indicate a 1 % increase in turnover and a 102 % increase in open interest.
Metals
Aluminium has just about managed to log gains on a w-o-w basis as the weekly candle chart indicates a spinning top formation as the open and close were close to each other and the shadows were longer than the real body. These are indications of an indecision in the markets as the 112 hurdle remains in place. Fresh buying is likely to be seen only above this threshold and bulls must await a clear breakout before initiating fresh buys. The 108 level will be a support area to watch. Market internals indicate a 35 % decrease in turnover and a 11 % increase in open interest.
Copper has stayed above it's bearish channel and needs to stay above the 412 levels in the coming week if the upthrust is to sustain. The immediate overhead resistance is near the 438 level where some profit taking maybe seen. Once the 440 mark is forcefully overcome, the bulls can expect a fresh upthrust triggered by bear covering. Market internals indicate a 28 % decrease in turnover and a 3 % increase in open interest.
Gold has closed at a five week high on the back of a easing dollar and some safe haven buying. The 28300 level needs watching as a near term resistance where some profit sales maybe seen. A forceful breakout above this threshold will see some more upsides. Market internals indicate a 20 % decrease in turnover and a 10 % decrease in open interest.
Nickel has continued to outperform it's peers and is likely to witness resistance near the 1080 - 1090 band as profit taking is likely at those levels. The 1020 level will be a critical support area to watch out for. Hold existing longs as the higher turnover and open interest indicate optimism. Market internals indicate a 5 % increase in turnover and a 19 % increase in open interest.
Silver has closed at 11 week highs as the bulls supported prices at higher levels and the easing USD was another bullish factor. The 58800 level will be a critical area to watch out for as a near term resistance and a breakout thereof will see a bear squeeze. As long as the price stays above the 56000 levels, the momentum bulls are in charge of the sentiments. Market internals indicate a 1 % increase in turnover and a 2 % increase in open interest.
Zinc has attempted to breakout above the 106 hurdle but ended marginally below this threshold with a smart rally in turnover and open interest. The bulls must keep the counter above the 106 levels with rising market internals to extend the upmove in the near term. Hold existing longs for now, add above the 106 levels on a closing basis. Market internals indicate a 54 % increase in turnover and a 32 % increase in open interest.
Energy
Crude Oil is in a decline as the lower tops and bottoms formation confirmed the bearish outlook advocated last week. The rising inventory in the US non strategic reserves can add some pressure in the near term and the 5050 level will prove to be a near term resistance. Avoid bargain buying as of now as the higher open interest suggests a short build up. Market internals indicate a 26 % decrease in turnover and a 14 % increase in open interest.
Natural Gas was advocated as ripe for a pullback rally which materialised along expectations. The weekly candle chart indicates a bullish engulfing pattern (daki) which has bullish implications in the absolute near term. Hold longs positions for now. Market internals indicate a 46 % increase in turnover and a 29 % decrease in open interest.