Pre market round-up July 29, 2010 08:25 hrs
120.24
12.00The markets opened on a subdued note and ended the session with losses as the bulls failed to hold the Nifty above the 5440 bullish pivot. The benchmark indices ended with approx 0.65 % losses over the previous session. The traded volumes were higher compared to the previous session, which is a negative indicator for a bearish session. The market breadth was negative as the BSE & NSE combined advance decline ratio was 1675 : 2574. The capitalisation of the breadth was negative as the BSE & NSE combined figures were Rs 5251 Crs : Rs 14709 Crs. The NSE shed Rs 20066 Crs in market capitalisation.
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The indices have closed in the lower end of the intraday range as the bulls were unable to support the markets at lower levels. The intraday range suggested for the Nifty between the 5455 / 5375 levels has held as the Nifty trended within these levels - thereby validating our intraday counts. The coming session is likely to witness a range of 5435 on advances above which the 5490 maybe seen. Support is likely at the 5360 levels, below which the 5350 maybe tested. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 5425 levels and the bearish pivot at the 5410 levels. Traders must watch these levels for signs of trend determination in the coming session.
The daily bar chart of the Nifty shows the benchmark in a continued lower tops and bottoms formation with a bearish engulfing pattern (negative implications), and the significant delta high of 23 July 2010 remaining inviolate. Effectively, this high will need to be overcome to signal a fresh buy. The net bias - caution for Thursday as the upsides may extend only if the Nifty stays above the 5425 levels, with the expiry day froth adding to the choppiness.
The market internals indicate a higher turnover due to the unwinding. The number of trades were higher and the average ticket size per trade was lower, indicating a selling bias. The capitalisation of the market was lower in line with a downtick session. The f&o cues show the bears squaring up shorts on declines.
| NSE cash figures | Jul 27, 2010 | Jul 28, 2010 | Change |
| Turnover Rs Crs | 13,367.03 | 15,012.23 | 1,645.20 |
| Number of trades | 53,54,493 | 62,29,130 | 8,74,637 |
| Capitalisation Rs Crs | 63,58,184 | 63,38,118 | (-) 20,066 |
| Average value per trade - Rs | 24,964 | 24,100 | (-) 864 |
| F&o Cues | Jul 27, 2010 | Jul 28, 2010 | Change |
| Nifty PCR | 1.48 | 1.42 | (-) 0.06 |
| Stock PCR | 0.36 | 0.35 | (-) 0.01 |
| Marketwide PCR | 0.54 | 0.53 | (-) 0.01 |
The outlook for the markets on Thursday is that of caution as the bulls must hold the Nifty above the 5425 levels sustain ably to manage a fresh upmove.
Vijay L Bhambwani
(Ceo -
BSPLindia.com)
The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com or (022) 23438482.
Mandatory disclosure - the analyst has no exposure to the scrip/s recommended above.
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