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Aug 25,
2013 |
Nifty
bullish if stays above 5425
The week witnessed a bearish undertone
as the selling interest persisted at higher levels. The combined
exchange weekly advance decline ratio was negative as the
figures stood at 8535 : 9330. The capitalisation of the
same on a commensurate basis was also negative as the figures
stood at Rs 36154 Crs : Rs 37477 Crs. The NSE shed Rs
38656 Crs in market capitalisation on a w-o-w basis. In terms of
sectoral performance, the midcap index was an under performer
whereas the technology index rallied, followed by the banking
index. Of the entire turnover initiated during the week, 61 %
was transacted on upthrust days, underscoring the prevalent
hope in the markets.
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The overseas investors were net sellers
to the extent of Rs 2767 Crs and that saw the INR close at the 63.20
levels vis-a-vis the USD (previous week 61.65 levels). The US
headline indices saw the old economy index DJIA wilt under selling
pressure, even as the Nasdaq Composite rallied. The UK FTSE 100
witnessed a mild decline in tandem with the DJIA. In the Asian
region, the Japanese market was the out performer during the week
whereas the fall was led by the Singapore, Hong Kong and Chinese
markets. The overseas cues have been cautious and the domestic
markets will require concerted buying to rally from the present
juncture.
Technically, the domestic markets have
declined for 5 consecutive weeks and have exhibited a doji on the
weekly charts. That offers some probability of a pullback as the
bear covering cum fresh buying can lift indices higher. The weekly
range advocated for the Nifty between the 5675 / 5325 levels was
violated as the benchmark tested the 5254 levels, thereby exceeding
our parameters on the downside. The coming week is likely to witness
a range of 5625 - 5675 on the upside as long as the Nifty stays
above the bullish pivot at the 5425 mark. In case of declines, the
Nifty is likely to test a level of 5325 below which the 5100 maybe
seen as long as the bears keep the Nifty below the 5350 levels.
Upthrusts are likely to be corrective
pullbacks in nature rather than conclusive trend reversals.
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- Vijay L Bhambwani
The author is
a Mumbai based trader and
invites feedback at Vijay@BSPLindia.com
and 9323720291.
Fair
disclosure - The author
has no positions in any stocks mentioned above.
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